Proposed changes to Portugal's citizenship law could cost the economy 20 billion euros in the coming years.

The new immigration and citizenship package, which the Portuguese Government prepared behind closed doors, was finally put on the table. When we look at the details of that critical meeting with Presidential Minister António Leitão Amaro and the announced report, we wonder if Portugal is shooting itself in the foot. I couldn't help but say. What has been loved about this country for years? Its peace, the warmth of its people, but most of all its open, predictable and embracing rules to the world. Now, the opposite wind is blowing. ### Numbers Don't Lie: The Bill Is Too Heavy Field research and the latest impact report reveal how serious the situation is. We are not talking about such minor losses. If these laws and the decision to extend the legal residence periods required for citizenship come into force, the direct damage to the Portuguese economy in 2026 is **401 million euros** in the most optimistic scenario. Don't just say, "Honey, you can get through the first year"; When we look at the 5-year perspective, this loss is based on **5.53 billion euros**, and in the 10-year perspective it is based on **15.9 billion euros**. In fact, in a harsher scenario where investor confidence is shaken, there is a possibility that this bill could rise up to **23.54 billion euros** in 10 years. ### Cards Are Dealt Again Let's remember the recent successive decisions: * Closing the real estate investment route within the scope of Golden Visa, * Ending the Non-Normal Residents (NHR) tax regime, * Endless bureaucratic deadlocks at AIMA (Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum)... Now, when the extension of the path to citizenship is added to these, it is as if Portugal is saying to international capital and talented professionals, "Now is the other door." As a matter of fact, the report draws attention to exactly this: Qualified minds and investors will immediately change the route to countries such as Spain, Italy, Greece or the UAE, which are waiting with open arms. ### State Funds and Street Tradesmen Will Also Receive Their Share It's not just about big investors, public finances and the local economy, which we all participate in, will also take a big hit. While the state's tax loss reaches 100 million euros in the first year, the amount to be lost in 10 years reaches **6.4 billion euros**. The biggest wound will be in Social Security premiums. If young, educated and earning people stop coming here, it means the fresh blood transferred to our retirement system dries up. On the other hand, the money spent by foreign residents in this country was the lifeblood of the market. It is predicted that in 2026 alone the decline in household consumption will remove approximately **200 million euros** from the market. Hotels, restaurants, private schools, the real estate agent in the neighborhood, the lawyer and even the notary will feel this decrease in demand to their core. ### Alarm Bells for Lisbon, Algarve and Porto Especially the Lisbon metropolis, Algarve and Porto, where foreign population and investments are concentrated, are the regions that will suffer the most damage from this. It is easy for regional inequalities to deepen. While government officials, of course, defend these reforms, they say, "Our aim is to strengthen the applicants' bond with Portugal, improve integration and make the system sustainable." This may be the intention, but the reality and numbers on the field tell us something completely different. These changes have not yet been approved by the parliament, the legal process continues. I hope that decision makers will take into account the concrete risks pointed out by this report and reach a more reasonable point before Portugal completely loses its old charm and competitiveness. Otherwise, it looks like a very difficult period will begin for all of us.