New discounts are expected on gasoline and diesel in Portugal: How much can they drop at the pump on Monday?

Fuel prices in Portugal are expected to drop again as of Monday, October 5.

However, there are small but important differences between the forecasts released on Friday morning.

While the forecast given by Jornal Económico predicts a decrease of approximately 3 cents per liter in diesel and 3.5 cents in gasoline, the calculation based on industry sources by Dinheiro Vivo indicates a decrease of approximately 3.5 cents in diesel and 4.5 cents in gasoline.

Therefore, it is not right for drivers to act like "it will definitely be 4.5 cents cheaper on Monday" today.

What is the prediction range?

When the current calculations are evaluated together, the approximate table for Monday is as follows:

Diesel: decrease of approximately 3–3.5 cents per liter

Gasoline 95: decrease of approximately 3.5–4.5 cents per liter

Final prices may vary depending on international market movements of petroleum products, euro/dollar exchange rate, tax decisions and commercial policies of each fuel company.

How much difference does it make in a 50 liter tank?

If the predictions come true, in a standard filling of 50 liters:

Driver using diesel costs approximately 1.50–1.75 euros,

The driver using gasoline costs approximately 1.75–2.25 euros.

may pay less.

For a 60-litre tank, the possible savings range from approximately 1.80 to 2.10 euros for diesel and approximately 2.10 to 2.70 euros for gasoline.

These are just the mathematical equivalent of the estimated reduction per liter.

Actual pump price varies by station will be.

What are the estimated liter prices?

In the calculation used by Dinheiro Vivo, the current average diesel price is approximately 2,180 €/L, while gasoline 95 is 2,096 €/L.

If the predicted decrease occurs, the approximate values ​​may reach 2,145 €/L for diesel and 2,051 €/L for gasoline.

The forecast used by Jornal Económico predicts approximately 2.15 €/L diesel and 2.061 €/L gasoline for Monday.

This difference shows why it is not right to give a single definitive price.

Prices are falling but still higher than in February

While the weekly discount is positive for drivers, the longer-term comparison reveals a different picture.

According to Jornal Económico's calculations, even if the expected new prices are realized, diesel will be approximately 49 cents more expensive per liter compared to February, and gasoline will be approximately 30 cents more expensive.

Considering a 50-liter tank, this difference is approximately 24.50 euros for diesel and approximately 15 euros for gasoline.

Therefore, the new weekly decline does not eliminate the price increase in recent months.

When will the prices be finalized?

Since commercial prices of fuel companies in Portugal may differ from each other, there is no single mandatory pump price across the country.

Therefore, the actual amount the driver will pay will be reflected on the price boards of the stations on Monday.

Current price comparison by station via DGEG's Preços dos Combustíveis Online system It can be done.

Resources

Jornal Económico — Combustíveis ficam mais baratos para a semana, 2 October 2026

https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/combustiveis-ficam-mais-baratos-para-a-semana/

Dinheiro Vivo — Combustíveis em queda: nova descida ronda os quatro cêntimos, 2 October 2026

https://dinheirovivo.dn.pt/economia/combustveis-em-queda-nova-descida-ronda-os-quatro-cntimos

DGEG — Preços dos Combustíveis Online

https://precoscombustiveis.dgeg.gov.pt/