New warning for fuel in Portugal: Annual price increase may reach 16% at the end of the year

A new economic forecast has been published in Portugal indicating that the fuel pressure that drivers have been feeling for months may continue until the end of the year. Oxford Economics calculates that fuel inflation in Portugal could reach around 16% annually in the last quarter of 2026 if energy prices remain high.

However, the 16% figure is not a price increase at the pump today. Year-end projection based on Oxford Economics' energy market and inflation outlook.

Energy shock may last longer than expected

Oxford Economics assesses that oil and natural gas prices may remain at high levels until early 2027.

As a result, the institution increased its 2026 average inflation forecast for Portugal to 3.3%.

In INE's August data, general annual inflation was 3.3% and the annual price increase in energy products was 12.2%.

Oxford Economics predicts that this trend may be more strongly reflected in fuel prices in the last months of the year.

What does 16% mean?

An important distinction is needed here.

Oxford Economics' forecast does not mean that today's liter price of gasoline or diesel will suddenly increase by 16%.

The forecast states that the fuel price level in the last quarter of 2026 may be approximately 16% higher than in the same period of the previous year.

Therefore, the figure is a one-year comparison.

The impact is not just limited to motorists

Energy The rise in prices also affects the cost of transportation, agriculture, fishing and food distribution.

Oxford Economics predicts that the rise in energy costs may be reflected in food prices over time and food inflation may exceed 4% in the summer of 2027.

For this reason, fuel prices are not considered only as an expense for car owners.

There is a risk that transport costs will be transferred to the wider cost of living.

There is a second risk in terms of interest rates.

In Oxford Economics' scenario, if energy prices remain high, it could also increase the general inflation in the Eurozone.

The institution predicts that the European Central Bank may make two additional interest rate increases that could increase the deposit interest from the current 2.5% to 3%.

This is also important for Portugal because the share of variable interest housing loans in the country is high compared to many European countries.

However, the interest rate increase is not an ECB decision yet; Oxford Economics' estimate.

The critical period for Portuguese households is the last quarter

If Oxford Economics' scenario comes true, Portuguese households could face pressure from three channels in the last part of the year:

fuel prices, its delayed reflection on food and other products, and a higher interest rate environment.

However, it should not be forgotten that forecasts may change since oil and natural gas prices are extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments. It is necessary.

Resources

ECO — Preço dos combustíveis a caminho de um aumento homólogo de 16% na reta final do ano, Luís Leitão, 24 September 2026

https://eco.sapo.pt/2026/09/24/preco-dos-combustiveis-a-caminho-de-um-aumento-homologo-de-16-na-reta-final-do-ano/

Instituto Nacional de Estatística

https://www.ine.pt/