Portugal closed the first half with a budget surplus of 803 million euros: The real test is in the second half of the year

Portuguese public finances completed the first half of 2026 with a budget surplus of approximately 803 million euros. According to INE data, this figure corresponds to approximately 0.5% of the gross domestic product.

However, the surplus in the first half does not guarantee that there will be a budget surplus of the same size at the end of the year. Measures that will be reflected in the budget in the second half of the year, such as the government's IRS discount and new supports for retirees, will use some of the available fiscal space.

There was a deficit in the first quarter

In the first three months of the year, there was a deficit in public accounts of approximately 0.7% of GDP.

The situation was reversed in the second quarter.

In the April-June period, the budget balance of public administrations had a surplus of approximately 1.325 billion euros.

This figure corresponds to approximately 1.6% of GDP in the second quarter alone.

Thus, the total result of the first six months was approximately 803 million euros more.

lower than last year

For comparison, the budget surplus in the first half of 2025 was around 1.281 billion euros.

Therefore, although Portugal completed the first half of 2026 in a surplus, the fiscal buffer is smaller than in the same period last year.

This difference is important in terms of new expenditures in the second half of the year.

IRS and retiree supports have not yet been fully reflected in the account

The government announced various measures in 2026, including the IRS reduction and additional support for retirees.

A significant part of these measures will be implemented in the public sector in the second half. will be reflected in your accounts.

For this reason, it is not correct to consider the surplus of 803 million euros in the first six months as "empty money" of the same size that can be used at the end of the year.

Yıl sonunda fazla mı açık mı olacak?

The government maintains its budget surplus expectation for the end of the year.

However, tax revenues for the rest of the year, economic growth, social spending and the cost of new supports will determine the final balance.

Therefore, although the first half data is a positive initial indicator, the final budget result of 2026 is not yet clear.

Resources

Instituto Nacional de Estatística — Contas Nacionais Trimestrais por Setor Institucional

https://www.ine.pt/

ECO — Contas públicas têm 800 milhões de margem antes dos apoios ao IRS e pensionistas, 24 September 2026

https://eco.sapo.pt/2026/09/24/contas-publicas-tem-800-milhoes-de-margem-antes-dos-apoios-ao-irs-e-pensionistas/

RTP — Excedente orçamental do primeiro semestre antecipa saldo equilibrado em 2026, 24 Eylül 2026

https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/economia/excedente-orcamental-do-primeiro-semestre-antecipa-saldo-equilibrado-em-2026_v1767339