Fitch upgraded Portugal's credit rating to A+: Debt is decreasing, economy is resilient

International credit rating agency Fitch increased Portugal's long-term credit rating from A to A+ and determined the outlook as "stable". In its establishment decision, it emphasized that the public debt would continue to decline, the budget performance would remain strong, and the economy would become more resilient to external shocks.

The Portuguese economy has received a new positive assessment from international credit rating agencies.

In its assessment published on September 4, Fitch Ratings increased Portugal's long-term foreign currency credit rating from A to A+.

The rating outlook remained stable.

According to Fitch, the main reasons for the upgrade are Portugal's strengthening public finances, the downward trend in public debt and stronger budget balances compared to countries with similar credit ratings.

The organization also cited strong support for budget discipline at the political level among the positive factors.

Expectation of a decrease in public debt

Fitch predicts that the decline in Portugal's public debt-to-GDP ratio will continue in the coming years.

Public debt according to the organization's expectations:

2025: 89.7%

2026: 87.0%

2028: 82.9%

may decrease to the level of .

This decline is expected to be supported by continued primary budget surpluses and nominal economic growth.

The Portuguese Government also confirmed that Fitch expects public debt to fall to 87 percent by the end of 2026.

2.1 percent growth forecast for 2026

Fitch's 2026 growth forecast for the Portuguese economy is 2.1%.

This rate is above the 1.9 percent growth recorded in 2025.

The organization expects investments to be one of the main drivers of growth.

On the budget side, it is estimated that the general government surplus, which was 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025, will decrease to 0.1 percent in 2026.

Fitch predicts a budget deficit of approximately 0.4 percent of GDP on average in 2027 and 2028.

Housing prices are one of the important risks

Despite the positive assessment, Fitch also draws attention to the risks in the Portuguese economy.

The most important of these is rapidly rising housing prices.

According to the organization's assessment, housing prices in Portugal increased by approximately 99 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the last quarter of 2019.

In the same period, the increase across the Eurozone remained at approximately 31 percent.

Fitch states that in the current situation, this rise does not turn into a major macrofinancial problem, but it may increase the fragility in the real estate market and the pressure on housing accessibility.

It is considered that tighter credit rules and the current structure of the Portuguese banking sector will help keep these risks under control.

What does A+ mean?

Ratings given by credit rating agencies provide an assessment of a country's debt repayment capacity and credit risk.

A higher credit score can help investors evaluate the country's debt as less risky.

One of the practical consequences of this is that the state's probability of borrowing under more favorable conditions in international markets increases.

However, an increase in credit score does not mean that citizens' housing or consumer loan interest rates will automatically decrease the next day.

Effect; The European Central Bank's interest rate policy depends on many factors, such as market conditions, banks' funding costs and individual credit risks.

President: “One of the most important economic news of 2026”

President António José Seguro also welcomed the Fitch decision.

In the statement published by the Presidency on September 5, the rating increase was described as an important external evaluation of Portugal's economic performance.

Seguro said that strengthening Portugal's financial reliability could reduce the pressure on the country in times when international financing conditions become more difficult.

The President also specifically emphasized that the impact of a better credit score is not “automatic or immediate.”

However, he stated that a stronger credit rating could, over time, contribute positively to financing conditions for the state, companies and families, and support investment and job creation.

According to Seguro, when 2026 is evaluated in retrospect, Fitch's decision can be seen as one of the most important economic developments of the year.

At the same Fitch level as Portugal, France and Belgium

The Ministry of Finance also welcomed the rating increase.

According to the ministry's statement, the A+ level brings Portugal to the same credit rating as France and Belgium in Fitch's assessment.

Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento evaluated the increase as an important success for Portugal, especially at a time when international economic and geopolitical uncertainty is high.

The government also states that this is the fourth increase in Portugal's credit rating in the last two years.

Standard & Poor's also recently maintained Portugal's A+ rating and evaluated its outlook as positive.

PRACTICAL KNOWLEDGE

Fitch's current assessment for Portugal

Credit grade: A+

Previous grade: A

Outlook: Stable

2026 growth forecast: 2.1%

2026 public debt forecast: 87% of GDP

2026 budget balance forecast: surplus of 0.1% of GDP

Is A+ a good grade?

Yes. A+ is a strong credit score within “investment grade”.

However, it is not the highest credit score. Above this on the Fitch scale are AA and AAA categories.

As the credit score increases, it is generally expected that lenders' risk perception of the country will decrease.

REVIEWED SOURCES

Portugal Resident — Natasha Donn, September 5, 2026: Source news titled “Fitch raises Portugal's rating to A+ with stable outlook”. The news is based on Lusa material.

Fitch Ratings — 4 September 2026: “Portugal — Rating Action Report”. Official assessment that Portugal's long-term credit rating has been increased from A to A+ and the outlook is stable.

Portuguese Presidency — 5 September 2026: Statement by President António José Seguro regarding the Fitch rating increase.

Portuguese Ministry of Finance — 5 September 2026: Official statement regarding Fitch's upgrade of Portugal's credit rating to A+ level. Public debt, growth and budget forecasts and Portugal's comparison with other Eurozone countries were examined.